| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Central Michigan | 14-16 | 1426.8 | -68.0 | 1358.8 | 74.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Texas | 7-38 | 1358.8 | -2.5 | 1356.3 | 3.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Idaho | 31-28 | 1356.3 | +0.0 | 1356.3 | 30.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Stanford | 29-30 | 1356.3 | -40.2 | 1316.1 | 55.2% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | W | New Mexico | 35-28 | 1316.1 | +46.4 | 1362.5 | 37.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Wyoming | 28-35 | 1362.5 | -37.8 | 1324.7 | 52.3% |
| 9 | Oct 17 2025 | L | Utah State | 25-30 | 1324.7 | -33.8 | 1290.9 | 47.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Hawai'i | 45-38 | 1290.9 | +57.0 | 1347.9 | 26.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Air Force | 16-26 | 1347.9 | -52.1 | 1295.8 | 53.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Nevada | 10-55 | 1295.8 | -63.6 | 1232.2 | 80.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | San Diego State | 3-25 | 1232.2 | -11.8 | 1220.4 | 18.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Fresno State | 14-41 | 1220.4 | -24.9 | 1195.5 | 23.1% |